come on, give me a reason, baby, anything will do

[14:45] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It continues to baffle me that people are planning a future where we have live in constant fear of disease.
[14:48] Emilly Orr: See, I don't think it's a constant fear of disease. I think it's reasonable precautions right now. The paranoia will ebb. I'll probably hang onto masks for a while, because we now have some snazzy ones.
[14:49] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: I'm not sure..
[14:49] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It really seems like this stuff is being planned for the long haul
[14:50] Emilly Orr: Right, but....see it this way. Right now, there's no vaccine.
[14:51] Emilly Orr: Right now it's a disease that someone can carry symptom-free, and pass it on to people, and those people will die.
[14:51] Emilly Orr: And not just 'the elderly', not just the infirm, but everyone--babies, toddlers, kids, teens, young adults, old adults. Everyone.
[14:52] Emilly Orr: Right now we have a significant portion of society who values the ability to 'do what they want' over saving other human lives.
[14:53] Emilly Orr: So, this is our reality. We can embrace the Republican death cult and go on about our daily business, and either get it ourselves or pass it to others, or...we can continue social distancing, conservatively reopen, wear masks, and remain aware.
[14:53] Emilly Orr: I know which side I'm on.
[14:53] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: There may never be a vaccine.
[14:54] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: There will likely not be a vaccine that works 100 percent of the time.
[14:54] Emilly Orr: True.
[14:54] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: There might not be a vaccine until next year.
[14:54] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: hypothetically, there isn't.
[14:55] Emilly Orr: That's perfectly possible.
[14:55] Emilly Orr: Even likely.
[14:55] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: you reopen conservatively.
[14:55] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: people die again.
[14:55] Emilly Orr: Which is what's happening. Both the opening and the dying.
[14:55] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: sure
[14:55] Emilly Orr: The second wave is already starting to strain hospitals in larger cities.
[14:55] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: And this is with people social distancing.
[14:55] Emilly Orr nods.
[14:56] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: So, we basically see no result from the social distancing.
[14:56] Emilly Orr: Yeah. It's a really lethal mutation.
[14:56] Emilly Orr: No, not entirely true.
[14:56] Emilly Orr: In a lot of areas--the areas that had a large population of citizens actually paying attention to the guidelines--cases DID drop. Deaths dropped.
[14:56] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: You don't have a proper set of data to say how much social distancing helped.
[14:56] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: But they didn't drop, you're saying. They're going up.
[14:57] Emilly Orr: No, right now it's all empirical. At the end of the day, no one knows everything, we're all just guessing.
[14:58] Emilly Orr: I mean, hells, we don't even know for sure how this thing STARTED--the prevailing theory was the wet market in Wuhan, but when a plane-load of epidemiologists went to Wuhan and started blood and history testing, they discovered something shocking--Wuhan was the SECOND infection site.
[14:58] Emilly Orr: it didn't start there.
[14:58] Emilly Orr: So they're now scrambling to trace it back farther, because that's kind of huge.
[15:05] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: I'm not really sure I trust anything coming out of china. That's including visiting scientists
[15:06] Emilly Orr: Unfortunately, that's fair, because they didn't want the world to know at first until they could spin it to their advantage. Same thing Russia's doing now--they went pretty quick from 'We have no cases' to "Surprisingly, we have over 8,000 cases, but we're on top of it'. Which tells me that 8K figure might be low too.

Right now, I don't think of this as overly political. I think of this as just common sense, health information. The next part of the conversation does veer heavily into politics, so feel free to skip.

[15:07] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: more on the disbanding of the police...
[15:07] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: tangentially..
[15:07] Emilly Orr nods.
[15:07] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: the thought just occurred..would most people trust their neighbor, so to speak, to be in charge of law enforcement?
[15:07] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: Considering the...diversity of opinions we see on how law should be enforced.
[15:08] Emilly Orr: I would say no. Unless you're living in a small enough location where you know your neighbors well.
[15:08] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: I can't see anything other than another security force replacing it.
[15:08] Emilly Orr nods.
[15:09] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: And this one may be blatantly politically driven
[15:09] Emilly Orr: Which leaves us pretty much where we are, with new added resentments.
[15:09] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: yes
[15:09] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: for the people on the losing end of the argument on "who gets to police now"
[15:10] Emilly Orr: But, I also don't see this resolving with just everyone going home and continuing to quietly grumble. Things are happening that are not just shocking US citizens, but the world stage. No one saw, in 2020, that an American president would pretty much seize control of the White House and a significant portion of real estate around it, and put up walls against his own citizens.
[15:11] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: Yes, but it doesn't have to be disband the police department or you want to string people up by the old oak tree
[15:12] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: I think we can get to a middle ground
[15:12] Emilly Orr: I hope so.
[15:13] Emilly Orr: I think it's going to take more death, more pain, more suffering, before we reach equilibrium.
[15:15] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: the systems are in place to be successful
[15:16] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: One just has to reach out and take it.
[15:16] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: There are a lot of protections built into the foundation of the law..that if we started abiding by them properly...
[15:17] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: we would really be in good shape.
[15:18] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: so much abuse..and outright dismissal of those protections, in the name of order...or..in the name of keeping some people from participating, though.
[15:18] Emilly Orr: True.
[15:18] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It's like seeing a big house of gold.
[15:18] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: But there's a Balrog with a bad temper at the front door.
[15:19] Emilly Orr: But, see, how do you see that? If you're a traditional murder-hobo adventurer, you kill the balrog. Simple.
[15:19] Emilly Orr: If you're a balrog, the balrog's just doing what he has to, man.
[15:20] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: true..
[15:21] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It's sad, though.
[15:21] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: There are big issues here
[15:21] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: But...if you look at police forces, and practices, in other countries...
[15:21] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It's just as bad, and even worse in some cases because you don't even have the pretense of constitutional protections.
[15:22] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: 1st world places with utterly draconian criminal justice systems.
[15:22] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It always makes me hope I never commit a crime in japan when I read about how they do it.
[15:22] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: Which...I guess is the point
[15:23] Emilly Orr: Oh, yeah, prison being as vile as it is is a GREAT deterrent to a life of crime. Not that I wanted one anyway? But I have made it a dedicated life choice never to go to jail.
[15:24] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: nods
[15:25] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: It's not just the prison though, their prosecutorial abuse is legendary
[15:25] Emilly Orr nods
[15:25] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: And they don't need to charge you to hold you
[15:28] Emilly Orr: Which is another problematic thing that changed with the Homeland Security act.
[15:29] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: I mean in japan
[15:30] Emilly Orr: Ah
[15:30] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: they actually still do need to charge you, to hold you past a certain time, generally
[15:30] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: The rules are just different in cases of 'terrorism'
[15:30] Emilly Orr: But it is beyond easy to declare anyone a terrorist
[15:30] Mxxxxxxx Wxxxxxxxxx: But any good lawyer would probably be able to get you out
[15:31] Emilly Orr: And, there's no longer any need to notify people of police searches--they can just declare federal interest and go in without the homeowner ever being present, or knowing at all.
[15:30] Emilly Orr: Ah

Now, recently Louisville, Kentucky, banned no-knock warrants, the type of warrant that was part of what led to Breonna Tayler being shot (the other part of that situation was the cops having the wrong house, the wrong name of the suspect, and NO one bothered to do even a five-minute search) The flip side of that is, no one who actually broke into Breonna's house and shot her has been charged with anything, and they need to be.

I still think there's a better way through all this, though. At least, than the way the US handled it. But what do I know, I'm not holding an elected office for a political party that's trying to get people killed. Maybe my perspective is different.

(Oh, and...



...because, y'know, the day.)